Flip profit is made or lost before closing. The underwriting needs enough margin for delays, change orders, financing, and the cost of selling—not just purchase price plus rehab.
Build from net sale proceeds
Start with a supported resale range, then subtract agent commissions, seller closing costs, concessions, and any expected price reduction. Gross selling price is not cash received.
Using a range instead of one ARV shows whether the project survives a normal negotiation or a slower market.
Treat time as a cost
Interest, taxes, utilities, insurance, lawn care, security, and opportunity cost continue while the project is held. A two-month permit delay can erase a thin margin even when the rehab budget is accurate.
Model the expected hold and at least one delayed scenario. The difference is often more actionable than a single projected ROI.
Make contingency explicit
Do not hide contingency inside the rehab line. Show the base scope and a separate overrun allowance so the team knows what remains available.
A good flip screen answers three questions quickly: maximum offer, cash required, and downside profit if rehab or time goes wrong.
- Validate major systems before finalizing scope.
- Use local days-on-market and concession data.
- Set a minimum profit in dollars as well as a percentage.
PropLurk keeps assumptions and outputs together so you can test the downside before moving a deal into your pipeline.
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